College Football Gameday Intangibles

With the season still a week away, I figured I would talk about intangibles that have nothing to do with statistics or trends but can impact game outcomes. The definition of intangible is not definite or clear to the mind; vague; elusive. When it comes to predicting college football games a computer loaded with stats, trends, and algorithms can be used to get an educated look at the probable outcome; however, there are intangibles which can play a major role in impacting the outcome of the game.  College football intangibles may include injuries (especially to key players), player suspensions, weather, player/coaching chemistry, and distance traveled to the game.

Injuries and player suspensions can definitely impact games. The quarterback position is probably the most important position; if the starting QB is out for a game, you really have to take a look at the backup QB. The Florida State/Clemson game last year was a good example. When Jameis Winston was suspended Florida State as a team struggled mightily against Clemson, barely escaping an upset at home.

Weather can impact games as well. A northern team that has practiced all fall with temperatures in the 70s can have major issues with cramps playing a team in the deep south early in the season with temperatures in the high 90s. Conversely, a team such as Southern California going to play Notre Dame later in the season with snow and extreme cold can impact QB and receiver touch because they’re not used to playing in the harsh conditions. Rain and snow can obviously impact offensive teams; windy conditions can impact special teams in a big way.

Player/coaching chemistry can impact games as well. When a new coach comes in, it can take a while for players to come on board with the coaching methodologies and expectations. In 2007 with new coach Nick Saban at the helm, Alabama ended the regular season with a 6–6 record including a four-game losing streak, a particularly humiliating loss at home to Louisiana-Monroe, and a sixth straight loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. If there is a solid work ethic in place and a good deal of carryover with starters returning and coaches remaining in place, a new coach may not have as big an impact. A team worth watching this year in this respect will be Michigan. Michigan coach Brady Hoke had “lost” his team by the end of last year. Michigan made a home run hire bringing in coach Jim Harbaugh; with Michigan returning 9 starters on both sides of the ball, it may not take very long for Michigan to challenge Ohio State both on the field and in recruiting battles.

In this day and age, most Division 1 teams fly to their games early in the week and are more or less acclimated by the time the game starts. Some coaches even prefer away games as there are less distractions to the players. However, in some of the smaller conferences long bus rides can impact players mojo on gameday. I don’t know if you have ever flown to Hawaii from the US mainland, but you can show up really saddle-sore from that flight. Also, games played at higher elevations can impact oxygen levels thus slowing down high octane offenses. Time changes between west coast and east coast teams can wreak havoc as well.

So even if you have access to a college football picking robot, it’s always a good idea to take a look to see if there are any intangibles that could swing the game in one direction or another.

One Week away!

The College Football Season Starts in 10 Days!

Let me introduce myself. I have been developing computer software for 25 years. I recently sent my last kid off to college and have found myself with some free time, so I decided to write a software program/algorithm to predict college football games based on statistics and trends. As a lifelong college football fan, I have been fascinated watching the way computers and immediately available statistics have changed the sports betting line accuracy. Even with the inundation of statistics, it still takes a great deal of time each week to gather all of the statistics and compare them to make educated picks. My computer program pulls in all of the statics for two given teams and shows the matchup with all stats included within seconds. I’ve pulled the stats for all 128 Division 1 teams and populated them in a database. The stats I use include rank, power rankings, returning starters, QB ranking, RB ranking, receiver ranking, OL ranking, DL ranking, LB ranking, DB ranking, special teams ranking, recruiting factor, coaching factor, new coaches, and home team advantage. The ranking of each team’s specific strengths and weaknesses can be used to zero in on how the game should play out. I will post my three best picks each week and will hopefully show that the program can be used to beat the lines. I plan on releasing the Thursday game pick Thursday morning and three weekend picks on Friday morning each week. My goal is to outpick the best handicappers by updating my data each week and taking into account intangibles such as injuries, suspensions, weather, etc.

Lets roll!